How to Predict the Odds of Anything

Statistics! They’re every scientist’s friend. But they can be easy to misinterpret. Check out this thought exercise with Hank to understand how some mental kung fu known as Bayesian reasoning can use stats to draw some downright surprising conclusions.
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Sources:
http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/science.pdf.html
http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/2008/04/07/schools-of-thought-in-probabil/
http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0521284147/singinst
http://www.behind-the-enemy-lines.com/2008/01/are-you-bayesian-or-frequentist-or.html
http://yudkowsky.net/rational/technical
http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/bayesbiog.pdf
http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X

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